Latin America Advisor, InterAmerican Dialogue
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May 18 2021
Article: What's At Stake in Mexico's June Midterm Elections?
Earl Anthony Wayne, former ambassador to Mexico and cochair of the Mexico Institute Advisory Board at the Woodrow
Wilson Center for International Scholars: “President López
Obrador is pressing for a large victory June 6 that provides a
strong mandate to pursue his ‘fourth transformation’ (4T) of Mexico. He
has become more aggressive in this effort, sharply criticizing individuals
and institutions he views as opposing his plans or limiting his freedom
of action. Mexico’s voters are getting a clear sense of their president’s
strong desire to push ahead with major reforms that will concentrate
more power in the presidency and the state. In early May, AMLO and his
party, Morena, retained the level of public support that produced victory in
2018. However, recent polls suggest a downturn and a greater likelihood
that Morena and its allies could fall short of the two-thirds majority needed
in the Chamber of Deputies to amend the
constitution. This helps account for AMLO’s
harsher criticisms, including of the National
Electoral Institute, and new investigations of
opposition figures. The president has also
taken a more nationalistic tone, including
by criticizing the United States for funding
NGOs that criticized the government.
AMLO remains very popular, but there has
been consistent criticism of government
performance on Covid-19, the economy
and security. Key for the election outcome
will be the vote tallies in swing districts,
where good polling data is lacking. Covid’s
effect on voter turnout remains a wildcard.
If AMLO’s coalition wins a large majority
in Congress and among governors, he will
pursue the 4T vigorously. Even with a more
modest victory, AMLO will likely press hard
to achieve as much of his vision as possible
before the end of his six-year term.”